Levanter forecasts volatility, not direction, and publishes its scoreboard so anyone can check it. These two tools let you run the same honesty on a track record, and on an asset. Pick one to open it.
Pick a tool
The Coin-Flip Test
Is a record of up-or-down calls a real edge, or is it luck?
Try 8 of 10, 62 of 100, or 270 of 500. A pure up-or-down call has to beat 50% to be worth anything.
Coin flip
55% right is not distinguishable from luck
55%
Hit rate
45–64%
95% conf. interval
100
Sample size
0%50% · a coin flip100%
Is it a market?
Tick the four things an exchange needs. Four boxes decide whether one could ever form.
Tick what is actually true of it.
The verdict
Tick the boxes above
An exchange needs all four. Miss one and the market either never forms, or has to be engineered into existence.
Off-Exchange